Rory McPherson

US Equities: Cash Out Or Carry On?

I’ve set to reading each and every past blog since joining Psigma and Tim Gregory’s, on US equities, is especially worthy of dusting down. Back in January 2015 Tim proffered that “the US market could spend much of this year going up and down within a volatile range but ultimately end up flat-lining”(read the full blogpost here). He has since extended this view through to the end of 2016. The options market, or a bookie (for the sake of easy listening), would have paid us handsomely to reflect this view given the bumper 2014 for US stocks (+13.5%) which saw them complete a 230% rise from their March 2009 trough. Whilst we don’t do options, we did – and do – run a material underweight to US equities based on the views in Tim’s blog. 2016’s vertiginous descent now makes the “flat-line” call tantamount to an 8% return from where we are today and forces us to re-consider our positioning. We’ve maintained our underweight, preferring to top-up other regions, but will be dissecting the current earnings season for signs the recovery still holds, so to cash in on that “flat-line” call…..Read more